Ramallah – Ma’an – The results of a public opinion poll in the Gaza Strip, conducted by the Arab World Center for Research and Development (AWRAD), showed that the majority demand general elections and 50% are thinking about emigrating.
The Center presented the results of its latest survey in the Gaza Strip, where data was collected between August 8 and 17, 2024. The survey aimed to shed light on the views of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip and to show their voice as it is from the reality of the life they live, amid the ongoing attacks and violence inflicted on Palestinians in the Gaza Strip and the state of displacement, famine, and living in tents, shelters, and streets.
The survey focused on vital issues such as assessing the current reality and future perceptions, scenarios for stopping the aggression, and the Palestinians’ expectations for the post-war period, as well as their confidence in the parties to humanitarian aid, reconstruction, governance, and support for elections.
The data for this surve
y was collected from a sample of 538 Palestinians residing in the Gaza Strip in all its governorates, north, center and south, taking into account the almost daily changes in the demographic structure, citizens’ movement and their locations. The interviews were conducted by expert researchers who have been working in the field of data collection with Gaza Strip citizens since the beginning of the aggression. Contact numbers were systematically selected from a long list of telephone numbers, giving each telephone number an equal opportunity to be selected without any bias. The population, including women, men, age and educational groups, etc., were represented in the survey sample. The results of this survey were compared with the results of a previous survey covering the West Bank and Gaza Strip published during June 2024 (for further comparison: find the results of the previous survey via the link).
Main results
First: Recurring displacement is the primary concern of the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip: Hal
f of the respondents stated that their primary and main concern is displacement, its recurrence, and its burdens.
21% stated that their priority is securing food and water, while 16% stated that their priority is improving housing conditions. 5% gave high priority to respecting citizens’ rights by internal political forces, and 4% chose health services as their first priority. The survey showed that 95% of the sample had been displaced once or more, yet 7% are still living or have returned to live in their undestroyed homes, and 19% of the respondents live in their partially destroyed homes. In contrast, the vast majority (74%) live in tents, schools, other institutions, and even in the open.
Second: Gazans expect the war to last no more than three more months: When asked about how long the aggression on Gaza will last, 60% said they expect the war to end within three months, while 18% expect it to end within six months to a year. 7% expect it to last more than a year, 4% expect it to last three years, and
the remaining 12% said they do not know.
Third: The majority supports the provisions of US President Joe Biden’s proposal, trusts Hamas’s seriousness, and 86% do not trust Israel’s seriousness in negotiating: The points raised in US President Joe Biden’s document were presented to the respondents, and they are the same points that the negotiators are discussing and the Hamas movement has agreed to the essence of their content on numerous occasions. Here, 89% of the respondents support (strongly or somewhat) the proposal to stop the war in three stages. 75% also support an initial stage for a complete ceasefire lasting up to 6 weeks. 85% support a clause about a first stage that includes the release of a number of Israeli prisoners (humanitarian cases) in exchange for the release of an agreed-upon number of Palestinian prisoners. 92% agreed to the withdrawal of the Israeli army from populated areas and the return of the displaced to their original areas of residence in the first stage. In general, 90% support
this proposal with all its provisions as a single package. At the same time, 86% of Palestinians in Gaza find Israel not serious about negotiations to stop the war on Gaza, while 30% see Hamas not serious about that.
Fourth: A minority views the overall performance of the Palestinian Authority government as satisfactory, while two-thirds of Gaza Palestinians find it unsatisfactory: When asked about Dr. Mohammad Mustafa’s government, 17% of Gaza Palestinians expressed that they were satisfied or somewhat satisfied with the government’s support for the daily livelihoods and basic needs of citizens during the war, while 66% expressed that they were completely or partially dissatisfied with the government’s performance. The same pattern applies to the government’s performance in ending the war on Gaza and achieving a ceasefire. Satisfaction increases slightly in the field of representing the Palestinian position in international forums, reaching 21%, while the percentage of dissatisfaction remains high at 62% of
respondents.
Fifth: Three-quarters of respondents support temporary international/Arab management of the Rafah crossing as a transitional phase: 74% of respondents supported the possibility of managing the Rafah crossing by an international/Arab body for a temporary period until a final agreement is reached on the crossing.
Sixth: 72% see a return to negotiations as a possible outcome of the war: Respondents were asked about the possible outcomes of the war, and 72% of respondents stated that the end of the war could lead to a return to negotiations between the Palestinians and Israel. Two-thirds of respondents saw the return of the Palestinian National Authority as a possibility (either a strong possibility or a possible possibility). At the same time, a third of respondents in the Gaza Strip see the return of Hamas to power in the Strip as a possibility. Also, 34% see the possibility of the war continuing for long periods as still a possibility, and finally, only about 20% believe that Israel will be able
to occupy Gaza for a long time, and the majority of respondents denied this.
Seventh: Trust in UN institutions and support for a Palestinian government in the Strip: As in the previous poll, 79% of respondents trust UN institutions to manage the humanitarian aid file, a position that reflects the reality among the people as these institutions are currently doing so. 63% of respondents also support the UN managing the reconstruction file, especially in its early stages. In contrast, 16% trust Arab parties to handle the reconstruction file in its early stages, and 7% trust the Palestinian Authority to do so.
Eighth: Governance for the Palestinians: Despite the positions of the supervisory bodies during and after the war on humanitarian and reconstruction matters, the majority of Palestinians in Gaza (71%) support a Palestinian government to manage their affairs. 17% support an international body assuming governance in Gaza, down from 21% in the June 2024 poll. 5% support Arab bodies doing so. Among the Palest
inian bodies, support among Palestinians in Gaza for a government run by the Palestinian National Authority rose from 27% in June to 40% at present. In contrast, support for a national unity government decreased from 49% in June to 35% today. Support for a Hamas-led government remains stable among about 6% of respondents.
Ninth: A majority supports holding elections: 82% of respondents support holding presidential elections, and 85% support holding legislative elections when the war ends.
Tenth: Cautious optimism amid a deteriorating reality: While 77% of Palestinians in Gaza feel that Palestinian society is moving in the wrong direction, 16% believe that society is moving in the right direction. However, 41% of Palestinians in Gaza express optimism about the future despite these extremely harsh circumstances. In contrast, 57% express pessimism about the future, knowing that the percentage of pessimism has increased by 13 points from 44% last June.
Eleventh: The majority did not follow the reconciliation t
alks and do not see any seriousness between the parties towards achieving them after the meeting in China: While 34% of Gaza residents see Hamas as serious about the reconciliation talks and achieving them, 48% see Fatah as serious. These positions came in light of 48% of Gaza Palestinians following the news about reconciliation, while the rest stated that they did not follow it (51%) or that they did not know the answer.
Twelfth: Immigration: While 47% of Palestinians in Gaza confirm that they do not consider immigration as an option even under the prevailing circumstances, it is worrying that 49% of respondents stated that they might consider immigration if they had the opportunity. This may be one of the most important indicators that will be monitored to monitor political and life indicators in general.
Source: Maan News Agency